Day 1โ2
Pace-friendly
Green tinge on day one typically offers seam movement. England's pace attack thrives. New Zealand's openers face a difficult start.
2nd Test Prediction ยท Lord's ยท June 17โ21
England win by ~150 runs
England's Bazball aggression at home, the pace-friendly Lord's pitch, and a 1-0 series lead all point to a decisive England performance. New Zealand have the batting to compete but touring sides rarely overhaul England on day five at Lord's.
Win Probability
60%
๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ England win
25%
Draw
15%
๐ณ๐ฟ NZ win
Medium confidence
Draw more likely than a NZ win โ touring sides rarely win at Lord's
๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
England
WWDWW
Eng win
~150 runs
๐ณ๐ฟ
New Zealand
WLDWL
Lord's Pitch Report
Lord's is England's most iconic ground. The pitch has distinct characteristics that matter for our prediction.
Day 3โ4
Batters' wicket
Once settled, Lord's flattens out and offers true bounce. Big first innings totals are common. England's deep batting lineup scores big here.
Day 5
Variable bounce
Uneven bounce emerges on day five. Chasing 300+ on day five at Lord's is nearly impossible for touring sides under pressure.
Form Guide
| Team | Last 5 Tests (home) | Avg 1st innings score | Avg bowling avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ England | W W D W W | 420 | 28.4 |
| ๐ณ๐ฟ New Zealand | W L D W L (away) | 310 | 32.1 |
Team Analysis
๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ England โ Prediction: Win
Aggressive, deep, and at home
Batting
Crawley, Duckett, Pope, Root, Brook and Stokes all capable of match-winning innings. England target 4.5+ runs per over โ they bat first, bat fast, and leave NZ with a daunting target.
Bowling
England's pace quartet in English conditions is close to unplayable on day one. Lord's rewards good-length bowling, which suits England's attack perfectly.
Edge
Stokes' Bazball record at Lord's: won 3 from 3 home Tests here in 2022โ2024. The ground is a fortress under this management style.
๐ณ๐ฟ New Zealand โ Prediction: Lose
Quality touring side, uphill task
Batting
Latham, Conway and the middle order have the technique for English conditions. The problem is building partnerships when England's seamers are threatening.
Bowling
Henry and Wagner are a dangerous pair. Henry's swing gets wickets at Lord's โ New Zealand have a real chance of bowling England out cheaply if conditions assist on day one.
Risk
The realistic scenario where NZ win: they take 4 England wickets on day one to restrict a first-innings score, then Latham builds a 350+ total. Possible, but not likely.
Six Factors That Decide This Match
- Toss: Crucial at Lord's. Winning the toss and batting first on a fresh pitch is a significant advantage. England have won the toss more than NZ in recent Lord's Tests.
- First session day one: If England's openers see off the new ball, England are on track for a big total. NZ need early wickets โ specifically England's top three.
- Joe Root: Root averaging 60+ at Lord's is the single biggest factor in England winning this Test. He controls the middle innings and creates platforms for the lower order to attack.
- Henry vs Crawley: Crawley's aggressive approach suits Bazball but makes him vulnerable to Henry's outswinger. If Henry accounts for Crawley early, NZ gain psychological momentum.
- Fifth-day conditions: Whoever is in the field last at Lord's on day five wins. The variable bounce makes chasing very difficult. England's plan is to put NZ in that position.
- Series context: England lead 1-0. A win means the series is settled with a match to spare. NZ need to compete in this Test to make Edgbaston a genuine decider โ this gives England slightly more motivation to close it out.
England vs New Zealand 2nd Test: FAQs
Who will win the England vs New Zealand 2nd Test?
Our prediction is England to win the 2nd Test at Lord's, June 17โ21. England's dominant home record under Ben Stokes, the pace-friendly Lord's pitch, and their 1-0 series lead all support this call. We predict England to win by approximately 150 runs.
What is the predicted score for the 2nd Test?
We predict England win by around 150 runs. A typical Bazball match sees England score 400+ in the first innings, bowling NZ out twice with their seam attack. A margin of 80โ200 runs is the likely range.
How is England's home record at Lord's?
Under Ben Stokes' Bazball era, England have won 3 from 3 home Tests at Lord's. Their aggressive batting approach turns what used to be conservative Lord's pitches into fast-scoring wickets. England average over 400 in their first innings in home Tests since 2022.
Can New Zealand win the 2nd Test at Lord's?
Yes โ at 15% probability, NZ winning is our least likely outcome. The scenario requires Matt Henry and Neil Wagner to restrict England under 280, Conway and Latham to put on a 200+ partnership, and NZ bowling England out quickly in their second innings. It is achievable but very unlikely given the conditions and England's current momentum.
What is the Lord's pitch like for this Test?
Lord's pitches typically start with a green tinge offering seam movement on day one, flatten out on days two and three for batting, and develop uneven bounce on days four and five. The slope at Lord's is unique and adds to the challenge for touring batters facing England's left-arm and right-arm combination.